Research on modeling the effects of flooding (due to climate change) on the mangrove ecosystem in Xuan Thuy National Park, Nam Dinh province - 1

HA NOI NATIONAL UNIVERSITY

CENTER FOR RESOURCE AND ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH

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TRAN XUAN BORN

STUDY ON MODELING THE EFFECTS OF FLOODING (DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE) ON MANGROVE FOREST ECOSYSTEM

XUAN THUY NATIONAL PARK, NAM DINH PROVINCE

Major: Environment in sustainable development (Pilot training program)

MASTER THESIS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE

SCIENCE INSTRUCTOR: DR. NGUYEN THI KIM CUC

Hanoi - Year 2012

TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION 1

1. Urgency of the topic 1

2. Objectives, objects, and scope of research of topic 2

3. Practicality of the topic 2

CHAPTER I: OVERVIEW 3

1.1. Mangrove forests 3

1.1.1. Concept of mangrove forests and their distribution 3

1.1.2. Origin of mangrove forests in Vietnam 4

1.1.3. Necessary ecological factors for mangrove forests to grow and develop 5

1.1.4. Some biological characteristics of mangrove species 6

1.1.5. Mangrove ecological succession in study area 7

1.2. Climate change and mangrove ecosystem 10

1.2.1. Climate change and sea level rise around the world 10

1.2.2. Climate change and sea level rise in Vietnam 11

1.2.3. Some effects of climate change on mangrove ecosystem 14

1.3. The role of mangroves in the context of climate change 18

1.3.1. Economics and biodiversity 18

1.3.2. Protect coasts and riverbanks 20

1.3.3. Land expansion 20

1.3.4. Environmental protection 20

1.3.5. Climate control 21

1.3.6. Limit pollution in coastal areas 21

1.4. Characteristics of the study area 21

1.4.1. Natural conditions, resources 21

1.4.2. Socio-economic conditions 31

1.5. Overview of the mangrove forest model 35

CHAPTER II: RESEARCH CONTENT AND METHODS 39

2.1. Research contents 39

2.2. Research methods 40

2.2.1. Methods of collecting and synthesizing information 40

2.2.2. Survey and measurement methods at the scene 40

2.2.3. Inheritance method 41

2.2.4. Programming method, MATLAB 42 software

2.2.5. Introduction to the individual-oriented modeling method (IBM) and the CGMM model 42

CHAPTER III: RESEARCH RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 53

3.1. Current status of mangrove forests in study area 53

3.1.1. Species composition in the study area 53

3.1.2. Growth characteristics of main species in the study area 54

3.2. Results of modeling the influence of changes in inundation due to climate change on mangrove dynamics in Xuan Thuy National Park 57

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 67

LIST OF ACRONYMS

Climate change: Climate change

CGMM: Can Gio mangrove forest model CNM: Mangrove trees

IBM: Instance-oriented model

IUCN: International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources

Aquaculture: Aquaculture

OTC: Standard umbrella

Mangrove: Mangrove forest

National park: National park

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1. 1: Sea level rise scenarios compared to the period 1890 - 1999 11

Table 1. 2: Sea level rise according to average emissions scenario 13

Table 1. 3: Area at risk of flooding according to sea level rise 13

Table 1. 4: Area of ​​land types available in study area 25

Table 1. 5: Species composition in study area 28

Table 1. 6: Summary of population and labor in communes in the buffer zone of Xuan Thuy 33 National Park

Table 2. 1: Description of components and variables with different scales of CGMM 49

Table 3. 1: Statistics on the number of species at OTC 53

Table 3. 2: Mangrove planning area until 2100 in study area 66

LIST OF DRAWINGS, GRAPHS, DIAGRAMS

Figure 1. 1: Map of mangrove forest distribution in the world 3

Figure 1. 2: Diagram of above ground roots 6

Figure 1. 3: Fruit and propagules of mangrove 7

Figure 1. 4: Four scenarios of mangrove forest response to the impact of sea level rise 16

Figure 1. 5: Diagram of research area 29

Figure 2. 1: Location map of standard plots in study area 41

Figure 2. 2: Reproducing the area of ​​competitive influence between individuals 42

Figure 2. 3: Conceptual structural design diagram of the model in the research area.. 49 Figure 2. 4: Conceptual structural design diagram of the model in the research area.. 52 Figure 3 . 1: Tree diameter values ​​according to age groups 54

Figure 3. 2: Tree height in OTC 55

Figure 3. 3: Tree height in OTC 56

Figure 3. 4: Simulation model of each individual's interaction with each other and their development process 58

Figure 3.5: Competition for space among individuals in model 59

Figure 3. 6: Evolution of species distribution over time 59

Figure 3. 7: Evolution of biomass value of species over time 60

Figure 3. 8: Mangrove forest distribution planning of XTNP until 2030 63

Figure 3. 9: Mangrove forest distribution planning of XTNP until 2050 64

Figure 3. 10: Distribution of mangrove forests in XTNP until 2100 63

PREAMBLE

1. Urgency of the topic

Global warming is a problem that has only been recognized in the past few decades. However, it has potential negative impacts on organisms and ecosystems. Climate change, a consequence of global warming, damages all components of the living environment such as rising sea levels, increased droughts, floods, and changes in climate patterns. climate, increase in diseases, shortage of fresh water resources, loss of biodiversity and increase in extreme climate phenomena.

The main cause of global warming is the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases. Greenhouse gases make up only 1% of the atmosphere but act like a blanket covering the earth because they retain heat to warm the earth, where the temperature would be about 30 0 C lower if there were no greenhouse gases . Human activities such as fossil fuel use, cement production, land use conversion and industrial activities thicken this blanket, leading to global warming.

Vietnam has favorable conditions for the development of mangrove forests with a coastline of about 3,260 km and a large river system rich in sediment. The area of ​​mangrove forests has continuously decreased in recent times, the decrease in area may be due to war (for example, about 124,000 hectares of mangrove forests in the Mekong Delta have been destroyed due to toxic chemicals). during the war - Le Dien Duc, 2009), forest fires, fuel wood collection, aquaculture and other human activities. The above activities have affected mangrove forests, changing the physical and chemical properties of the soil; changing the amount of microorganisms; promote saltwater intrusion; promote coastal and riverside erosion; increasing water pollution...

Research on modeling the effects of inundation (due to climate change) on the mangrove ecosystem is part of the research on modeling mangrove dynamics according to changes in environmental conditions in which the parameters The factors that determine the evolution of the mangrove ecosystem include many factors such as salinity, flooding conditions, climate, soil... Currently, research is done on modeling and predicting the dynamics of mangrove forests when there is a problem. Changes in environmental conditions in Vietnam have been carried out in the southern region, however, in Xuan Thuy National Park, there is still a new problem, especially modeling the impact of inundation on different scenarios. climate change version.

Starting from the above practice, students conducted research on the topic "Research on modeling the effects of flooding (due to climate change) on the mangrove ecosystem of Xuan Thuy National Park, Nam Dinh province" .

2. Objectives, objects, and scope of research of the topic

* Target

Research on modeling the effects of flooding (due to climate change) on the mangrove ecosystem of Xuan Thuy National Park, Nam Dinh province.

To achieve the above goal, the project needs to focus on solving the following tasks:

- Determine the relationship between the physical environmental characteristics of the region and the mangrove forest system;

- Analyze and evaluate the interaction between topographic conditions and the mangrove ecosystem in the study area;

- Research factors affecting the distribution of mangrove flora, focusing on flooding regime;

- Design and build a mathematical model to simulate the evolution and succession of mangrove forests;

- Modeling mangrove forest evolution under the influence of environmental conditions.

* Research subjects

Mangrove forests of Xuan Thuy National Park.

* Research scope

Area of ​​mangrove forests in Xuan Thuy National Park.

3. Practicality of the topic

The study was summarized from survey data to predict the growth and development dynamics of mangrove trees under sea level rise scenarios. Tu can provide a tool for mangrove managers and researchers to refer to and evaluate the effects of climate change from a narrow perspective through changing an environmental factor, inundation.

The research results of the topic are presented on the report page. In addition to the Introduction and Conclusion, the report is divided into chapters:

Chapter I: Overview

Chapter II: Research content and methods Chapter III: Results and discussion